Trump’s Return: What’s Next for China-U.S. Relations?
By Joel Wong
On January 20, Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. In a historic move, Han Zheng, China’s vice president, attended the inauguration, marking the first time a senior Chinese official participated in a U.S. presidential ceremony. Just days before, President Xi and Trump had a phone conversation, expressing hopes for a fresh start in their relations. However, tensions remain high due to Trump’s hawkish administration appointments, including a Secretary of State already sanctioned by China.
China Global Television Network (CGTN), one of three branches of state-run China Media Group and the international division of China Central Television (CCTV), interviewed the following experts* for their opinions.
*(Peter Kuznick, History Professor and Director, Nuclear Studies Institute, American University; Margaret Kimberley, Executive Editor, Black Agenda Report; Prof. Huang Jing, Director, Center for American and Pacific Studies, Shanghai International Studies University; Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute).
These experts are divided on how a second Donald Trump presidency might affect the U.S.-China relations. Some argue his approach may be more transactional and less hostile compared to his first term, while others believe his inherent antagonism toward China will dominate.
Key Takeaways:
Signals of Conciliation
Trump’s inauguration speech and early actions suggest a potentially more conciliatory stance towards China. Notable developments include a Chinese vice president attending the ceremony and a phone conversation between Xi Jinping and Trump expressing mutual hopes for improved relations.
Hawks in the Administration
Despite these signals, concerns linger over Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, who remains on China’s sanctions list, as well as the presence of China hawks in his administration—both factors that could fuel tensions.
Diverging Expert Opinions
Panelists share differing outlooks:
Some believe Trump’s approach is largely pragmatic and driven by realpolitik.
Others argue his actions reflect deep antagonism toward China, anchored in a zero-sum mindset.
Complex and High-Stakes Dynamics
The discussion underscores the multifaceted nature of U.S.-China relations, with potential for both cooperation and conflict. This dynamic carries significant global implications, particularly for the Global South.
China’s Firm Stance
China continues to prioritize a stable and sustainable relationship with the U.S., emphasizing its “red lines” on critical issues such as Taiwan.
Risk of Escalation
Panelists also express concerns about the heightened risk of conflict, including the possibility of a multi-front war involving nuclear weapons—emphasizing the dire stakes of this bilateral relationship.
Uncertain Outlook
Ultimately, the panelists reached no consensus on how U.S.-China relations will evolve under a second Trump term, with opinions varying widely and significant uncertainty remaining.
Overall, Trump is likely to emphasize a “zero-sum game” approach to trade, aiming for policies that prioritize perceived U.S. advantage and could involve both cooperation in certain sectors and a continuation of tariffs or new trade restrictions to counter China’s influence.