What Do International Relations Theories Predict for the Future of U.S.-China Relations?

By Joel Wong

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace generates strategic ideas and independent analysis, supports diplomacy, and trains the next generation of international scholar-practitioners to help countries and institutions take on the most difficult global problems and advance peace. What can international relations theories tell us about the most geopolitically consequential bilateral relationship of the next decade?

In his chapter for Carnegie American Statecraft Program’s volume on the future of U.S.-China relations, Stephen Walt explores four approaches to analyzing international relations:

1. Realism: Emphasizes limits to power and ambition, suggesting neither country can decisively defeat the other.

2. Liberalism: Highlights economic ties’ pacifying effects, providing incentives for bounded competition.

3. Social Constructivism: Focuses on identity, norms, and perceptions shaping the relationship.

4. Individual Leadership: Considers leaders’ roles in shaping policy.

Key Takeaways

1. Recognize limits to what the U.S. and China can do to each other; coexistence is inevitable.

2. Identify areas for cooperation:

Agreeing on mutual non-aggression.
Finding mutually beneficial adjustments (arms control, trade).
Defending interests independently without seeking unilateral advantages.

Implications

Competition will persist, but with potential for cooperation.
Policies should balance rivalry with collaborative efforts.
Theories inform decision-making, but no guarantee of adoption.

Conclusion

U.S.-China relations will likely involve a mix of competition and cooperation. Understanding international relations theories and adopting pragmatic policies can help navigate this complex relationship.