Trump’s Return: Chaos 2.0?

By Joel Wong

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, editors at the South China Morning Post explore the potential ramifications for US-China relations, Asia, and global politics. They forecast heightened trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and regional uncertainty while recognizing China’s strategic preparations.

Impact on US-China Relations: Trump’s return to the White House is poised to have profound effects on US-China dynamics, with scenarios ranging from intensified competition within established frameworks to a more aggressive stance aimed at curbing China’s growth.

Economic Challenges for Asian Leaders: Leaders in Asia, especially those with substantial trade surpluses with the US, may face economic hurdles as Trump is expected to implement tariff policies, contributing to intensified competition and volatility in the global market.

China’s Preparedness: China appears to have anticipated this scenario, working to strengthen its leadership in global supply chains and achieve technological self-reliance, all while grappling with domestic economic issues.

Middle East Conflicts: The situation in the Middle East, especially regarding the Gaza conflict, is likely to deteriorate under a Trump administration, given his appointments and remarks signaling support for a decisive Israeli victory.

Uncertain Future for Hong Kong: The future of Hong Kong remains precarious, with the possibility of renewed US sanctions targeting individuals and institutions, despite Hong Kong’s ongoing economic significance to the US. ,

Taiwan Tensions: Although the likelihood of direct military conflict over Taiwan is considered low, increases in US arms sales and provocative actions could heighten tensions and risk unintended escalation.

It remains to be seen how these dynamics will unfold. One thing is certain: we are living in interesting times!