China’s New Taiwan Strategy – Beyond Militarily Punishing Taiwan
By Joel Wong
Is China’s military drill in the Taiwan Strait a signal of abandoning peaceful reunification? According to Chinese strategist and former Air Force Colonel, Professor Wang Xiangsui, all Western media that think this way are caught in a misconception.
China’s ambition for reunification with Taiwan is intricately woven into its economic prowess, wielding significant influence over Taiwan’s economic landscape. Through a multifaceted strategy encompassing trade, investment, technology, and regional integration, China exercises economic pressure to further its goal of unification with Taiwan.
The trade volume between the two entities stands as a testament to Taiwan’s economic reliance on China. In 2021, Taiwan’s trade surplus of $28.33 billion with mainland China highlighted the asymmetrical nature of their economic relationship, underscoring Taiwan’s vulnerability to disruptions in the Chinese market. This trade imbalance not only solidifies China’s economic leverage over Taiwan but also lays the groundwork for potential diplomatic and political maneuvering.
Moreover, Chinese investments in strategic sectors of the Taiwanese economy, such as technology and manufacturing, serve as a form of economic diplomacy, embedding China’s interests deeper into Taiwan’s economic fabric. The increasing flow of Chinese capital into Taiwan raises concerns about the erosion of Taiwan’s economic autonomy and the encroachment of Chinese influence on critical industries.
China’s capacity to influence market access for Taiwanese companies, coupled with its adept use of economic statecraft, amplifies its leverage in shaping Taiwan’s economic policies and decisions. The interplay of economic pressures, trade dynamics, and investment strategies underscores China’s nuanced approach to exerting control and fostering interdependence as a means to further its reunification agenda.
Additionally, China’s regional economic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), present avenues for shaping Taiwan’s economic engagement with the broader region. By integrating Taiwan into regional economic frameworks led by China, Beijing not only deepens its economic footprint on the island but also aims to cultivate a conducive environment for potential reunification discussions.
In navigating China’s economic strategy for unification, Taiwan is confronted with a delicate balancing act between economic opportunities and geopolitical risks. The intertwined nature of economics and politics in the China-Taiwan relationship underscores the complexities and challenges inherent in charting a course towards reunification. As China continues to wield its economic might as a tool for unification, the intricate interplay of economic pressures on Taiwan’s sovereignty underscores the intricate dance of power dynamics at play in the pursuit of reunification.
Winning without fighting, Sun Tzu explained, is about winning the psychological battle and avoiding a physical one. Killing should only be a matter of necessity to survive, not the goal of the mission!
Joel,
This Roger S. Dong, Lt Colonel, USAF, retired. I have been a China specialist since 1972 and served in Taiwan with the Air Force 12 years. My last assignment was in 1995 when I was the Defense Attache’ serving at the American Institute in Taiwan until 1999. My view of the China, Taiwan and America relationship is similar to yours.
However, the changes that have occurred in China after APEC further diminishes the likelihood that China will use force to re-unite both countries. China’s PLA has been decapitated with the firing of their Defense Minister, the Rocket Forces leaders, their Air Force Commander and other officers and makes the PLA weak until the new leaders have sufficient time to get the combat experience needed to fight the US military. China has not been in combat since 1979 and thus is not ready for a major war. In April 2023, we learned that all the major cities in China are sinking from huge caverns created by the extraction of water under Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Xi Jinping now has the responsibility to prevent these cities from calamity when the heavy cities crash. There are no simple engineering solutions to this severe threat, but Xi must deal with it as he is now responsible. These post APEC developments means that China must focus its energy to restore military leadership and keep China’s cities afloat.